There’s no part of the soccer calendar filled with more optimism than preseason.
With transfer rumors flying, new coaches getting settled, and more than enough time to dream up trophy-filled scenarios involving your favorite club, everything is in play. But on the other side of hope sits a pile of questions. Things are always unsettled in preseason, to one degree or another. Rosters are unfinished, tactics are slowly developing, and the future is murky.
To help set the stage as 2024 preseason gets underway, let’s run through five big questions from across MLS.
Things can change, but the bookmakers (and most of us, I’d imagine) have zeroed in on four primary MLS Cup contenders for the 2024 campaign: Inter Miami CF, LAFC, Columbus Crew and FC Cincinnati. Odds are those teams will be good-to-great this year. Still, each of those clubs have some very real flaws to address with the regular season kicking off in fewer than 40 days.
Let’s start with Miami, shall we?
Tata Martino has an absurd amount of talent at his disposal, but he also has a puzzle to solve when it comes to managing minutes. Many of Inter Miami’s key players are over 30, and participating in a host of different competitions this year will strain the fitness of a team that’s already going to (perhaps by design) struggle to defend in transition. Add in the challenge of navigating Lionel Messi’s absence during the Copa América and things get a bit more complicated.
For LAFC, their biggest flaw rests in the unknown. There’s still a lot of work to do when it comes to their roster build. John Thorrington has two open Designated Player spots to work with, a reportedly disgruntled star in Dénis Bouanga, and at least one missing piece in every line of the field. Even if all the pieces fall into place, they’ll be fighting to find chemistry early in the year.
FC Cincinnati need to find someone to start next to Obinna Nwobodo in midfield (maybe Junior Moreno returns). But their obvious weak point relative to last year is in the attack. What’s the plan with Álvaro Barreal if the European transfer links come true? Can they replace Brandon Vazquez after the striker's transfer to Monterrey? And, uh, what’s happening with Aaron Boupendza? Cincy’s attacking numbers could be on the decline in 2024.
Columbus have few roster needs, but have complacency to stave off and a defensive approach to sharpen. After winning MLS Cup in December and keeping most of their roster intact, it’s clear the Crew have the talent to run it back. But opponents have had an offseason to game plan for a team that wasn’t anything more than average defensively last season.
How successfully these top trophy contenders mask their flaws will have a massive impact on this new season.
I’ll be the first one to tell you: preseason predictions should always be taken with a truckload full of salt. That said, the general shape of the Eastern Conference feels pretty set with a group of expected contenders, a group of teams likely to struggle, and a handful of clubs in the middle.
But the Western Conference? Well, that’s where things feel far more fluid.
Last year, the East punched the West in the mouth, took their lunch money, and spent it on trophies. The 2023 Supporters’ Shield winner (Cincy) came from the East. The 2023 MLS Cup winner (Columbus) came from the East. Seven of the 10 MLS qualifiers for the 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup are from the East. Any of the top three teams in the East in 2023 would have won the West (based on points).
With a vulnerable reigning champion in the form of St. Louis, there’s room for plenty of shuffling at the top of the Western Conference table. Even looking towards last year’s cellar-dwellers, the Colorado Rapids have made some impactful offseason moves and should be much stronger in attack this year. The LA Galaxy, who finished second-from-bottom last year, have made some big front-office changes and are reportedly interested in a couple of promising wingers in the transfer market.
It feels like it’s all up for grabs in the West.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that two of the biggest stars in MLS – Bouanga and Thiago Almada – are suiting up for a European team when the 2024 season kicks off.
Bouanga appears to want a move back to France or another European destination. That, or he just wants a new, more lucrative contract with LAFC. If the reigning Golden Boot presented by Audi winner does move, though, it would have to be for a major fee according to Thorrington, the top dog in LAFC’s front office.
“He’s under contract. He’s the top goalscorer in the league, a huge part of how we play,” Thorrington said after their MLS Cup defeat. “So our plan is absolutely he’s under contract for another few years and that he’ll be back. We never know what may happen, but it’s going to be a hugely, hugely expensive transfer fee if he’s not here next year.”
If the fee to prompt LAFC to part ways with Bouanga will be “hugely expensive," it’s hard to imagine what the fee for Atlanta United’s Almada would have to be. The 22-year-old Argentine is one of the absolute best playmakers, of any age, to ever set foot in MLS. Almada added more value than all but two players in MLS last year while pulling the strings for Atlanta, according to American Soccer Analysis’ goals added metric.
Big European clubs have been interested in Almada for quite some time now, but Atletico Madrid reportedly have the No. 10 “very high” on their list should Ángel Correa leave for the Middle East. If the LaLiga giants slide an irresistible, record-breaking offer across president and CEO Garth Lagerwey’s desk, it’s hard to imagine the club would turn it down.
The money needs to be right, but there is a world where LAFC and Atlanta United have some massive shoes to fill before the season starts.
A couple of teams have already made a DP splash this offseason.
The New York Red Bulls certainly did just that when they signed Emil Forsberg as a DP from Bundesliga sister club RB Leipzig. The Colorado Rapids did too when they signed former CF Montréal playmaker Djordje Mihailovic as a DP. Those are key moves, but there are still a bunch of DP spots open across the league – by my count, more than 20.
The LA Galaxy appear close to landing 22-year-old Brazilian winger Gabriel Pec as a Young DP, while there have also been rumblings about the club pursuing Genk winger Joseph Paintsil. Paintsil is currently starting for Ghana at the AFCON, and both players look promising. The Galaxy’s cross-town rivals have a pair of DP spots open, and the Seattle Sounders are reportedly nearing a deal for Argentine winger Pedro de la Vega to occupy their open spot.
After those three clubs, more than two-thirds of the remaining teams out West can likely sign a DP this offseason. The East is more settled on the DP front, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Chicago Fire FC, D.C. United, and maybe even a couple of other clubs make splashes in this window.
It’s extremely hard to win in MLS if your big-time players don’t perform, so how this new crop of DPs fares in 2024 will be hugely important.
Eight teams will begin the new season with brand-new managers.
Eight. That’s 27% of the entire league. If you also count John Herdman, who only coached Toronto FC’s Decision Day clash vs. Orlando City last year, then you’re looking at 31%. As a quick refresher, here’s a chronological look at which coaches ended up where:
- Toronto FC: John Herdman
- Portland Timbers: Phil Neville
- Colorado Rapids: Chris Armas
- Charlotte FC: Dean Smith
- New York Red Bulls: Sandro Schwarz
- New England Revolution: Caleb Porter
- CF Montréal: Laurent Courtois
- D.C. United: Troy Lesesne
- Minnesota United FC: N/A (they're waiting for new CSO Khaled El-Ahmad to arrive before hiring a permanent coach)
With a huge number of clubs around the league entering a new phase, the ones that do the best job of soaking up information during the early part of the year will have a huge advantage. The ones who struggle to adapt will have problems that extend into the summer and beyond.
No team wants to get left behind, but with so much turnover, a few clubs stumbling early on is almost guaranteed.