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We are officially (kind of) 11.76% of the way through the MLS season. We won’t truly know anything until we’re roughly 88% more of the way through it, but some teams are already separating themselves from the pack. Even at this early point in the season, there are favorites to take home the Supporters’ Shield.
Last year, FC Cincinnati went undefeated through the first seven games. In 2022, LAFC went undefeated through their first five. In 2021, New England lost once in their first 10. It's too early to say anything declarative, but you can typically tell pretty early who’s got it and who doesn’t.
Here’s who’s passing the test so far. Or at least could start to pass the test if things begin to go their way.
TIER 3: DON’T LET YOUR DREAMS BE DREAMS
I don’t think Montréal are going to do it, but this tier isn’t about what we think is going to happen. It’s about what could.
Montréal have played remarkably well over their first four games. They should be on 10 points after four consecutive road games to start the year, but a wild ending in Chicago on Saturday kept them at seven. Still, by the time they wrap their six-game road stand, they’ll have 17 home games left and just 11 games on the road.
Even last year’s Montréal team won 10 home games. They’ve already matched their total number of road wins from last year. Imagine they pull off two more road wins in their next couple of games. They’d be on 13 points with a whole lot of time at home on the way. That would be a distinct advantage over their other competitors at the top of the league.
Enough to get them a Shield? Well… almost definitely not. But still, things are setting up nicely.
Seattle Sounders FC
I’m not ready to count them out yet. Even if I should. I know that sounds harsh, but they’re already at an eight-point disadvantage compared to the rest of the teams at the top of the league. Even with one fewer game played compared to most of the league, the Sounders just haven’t looked like the kind of team that’s set to compete week-to-week across the full 34-game season.
But it’s still Seattle. And they’ve got to get healthy eventually. Right? Maybe?
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
The big advantage for teams like Seattle and Vancouver are the Western Conference isn’t nearly as deep as the Eastern Conference. There are simply more opportunities to earn easier points. This is why I’m willing to include Vancouver here even if they may not have the same high-end talent as the rest of the teams on this list. They have decent quality from back to front and it’s fair at this point to consider Brian White and Ryan Gauld genuine match-winners. Typically, they’d need more than that to compete for the Shield, but, hey, weird things happen out West.
TIER 2: NEED SOME BREAKS BUT MAYBE
Minnesota United FC
The Loons have looked excellent over their first few games, they have a manager in place, and they have Emanuel Reynoso. That’s enough to convince me they have a chance. And that they certainly have a chance to win the conference. Remember that if they had won just nine home games last year – a slightly above-average number – instead of just four, they would have tied for first in the West instead of missing the playoffs. On some level, it’s weird they weren’t involved in this race last season. Maybe now they’ve sorted some things out and are ready to compete. They look the part so far.
LA Galaxy
The Galaxy have the kind of attacking talent that can push you to the top of the standings. New winger Joseph Paintsil is electric and you should all be aware of Riqui Puig and Dejan Joveljic by now (we’ll see more of Gabriel Pec soon). Joveljic seems ready to take a step forward this season and has great underlying numbers through his first few games.
The big issue, though, is their defensive problems don’t seem to be going away anytime soon. It’s hard to see them being steady enough week-to-week to grind out results when they need to. Still, they could easily end up as the best team in the West this year. That’s worth a lot of points.
LAFC
Unlike their rivals in Carson, LAFC haven’t looked up to the task to start the season. They’ve been held scoreless over their last three games and have looked disjointed since they took a 2-0 lead on Seattle in game one.
LAFC have a way of sorting themselves out, though. They have two open DP spots and should have enough talent to start bullying their way to wins eventually. Like Seattle, you just can’t count them out.
TIER 1: THIS IS HAPPENING
FC Cincinnati
Now we’re really talking.
2024 Cincy doesn’t look too much different from 2023 Cincy. And with Concacaf Champions Cup in the past, they can truly start to focus on MLS. Even with CCC, they’ve earned eight points through their first four games. That’s a lot better than the other teams who have started the year with two rounds of extra games.
They’re still as solid as ever, and Lucho Acosta shows no signs of slowing down. That’s enough to have a chance at repeating.
Atlanta United
The Five Stripes have no CCC to deal with, more attacking talent than anyone who isn’t named Inter Miami and a defense that appears to finally be sorting itself out. That’s a dangerous formula.
They’ve looked sharp through three games and seem to have a roster ready to compete with the best in the league. There are big questions looming, though. They’re a team missing key players to international duty throughout the season. And the defense that seemed to be fixed took a big blow yesterday when they found out new DP center back Stian Gregersen will miss time with a meniscus issue.
Inter Miami
The Herons haven’t started to feel the true effects of CCC yet. Remember, no one was concerned about their start to the season. The concern for Inter Miami was if they’d be able to keep it up as the year went on. So far, they’ve looked beatable but overwhelmingly talented. That’s resulted in 10 points through five games.
They clearly have the ability to win more than enough games to compete with the Shield, but competition is stiff in the East. Other, less talented teams with a little less fixture congestion and a little more injury luck could edge them out. Then again, considering how good this roster is, who are we to doubt the Herons can win every competition they're in?
Columbus Crew
The Crew have picked up right where they left off. No one has looked better through their first few games of the season. And the beatdown they delivered to New York this weekend is one of the performances of the year so far.
But, like Inter Miami, they haven’t started to feel the full effects of CCC play. With a huge matchup with Tigres on the horizon, there’s a decent chance they slow down in MLS. Then again, whatever Wilfried Nancy does seems to work. Even when this team has to rotate a few players in and out of the starting lineup.
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