Good morning, y'all. Your pal Sam here. Let's soccer.
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QUESTIONS FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION FROM MATCHDAY 6
Just four more weeks until we can start believing any of this is real! That's not even a bit. The TL;DR is that underlying numbers like xG generally need around eight to 10 games before they start being somewhat predictive. Even if MLS admittedly appears to kind of sort of break that trend. But still, we'll hold out on taking home-run swings on our takes for a few more games. For now, I have questions.
1. Did Minnesota United just give everyone the blueprint they need to beat St. Louis?
You, dear Daily Kickoff reader, may not have noticed, but baseball returned last week. Feels like a good time to use a baseball metaphor.
Every now and then, a young player comes up and immediately starts mashing the ball. It seems like they're going to be an outright star. Then teams get some tape and data on the player's tendencies, realize they can't hit a curveball and just launch curveball after curveball at the guy until he's out of the league.
I'm not saying that's what's going to happen to St. Louis here, but they did get thrown a curveball for the first time against Minnesota United. The Loons were comfortable without the ball, which meant St. Louis had to be comfortable with it. CITY SC didn't looked panicked or anything, still putting up plenty of shots, but the clear cut chances that come from an effective high press didn't show up.
Now, it's not as easy as saying "well, every team should sit back and give up the ball against them." It's tough to change your tactical DNA week to week, and some teams are just going to try and play through the adversity that St. Louis creates. But don't be surprised if there are slight adjustments from St. Louis' opponents from here on out that mirror what Minnesota United did this weekend. There's a framework for making them uncomfortable now. And how they adjust to the curveball will determine how much success they actually have in year one.
2. What are the answers in Carson?
Still no wins so far for the Galaxy. Fans are protesting the state of the club, and the team looks wholly ineffective. With those two pieces of information in hand, would you be surprised to learn that there were boos at the end of LA's 2-1 loss to Seattle this weekend?
At this point, I don't know what the answers are or how LA gets to them. There's a part of me that wants to believe when Chicharito returns, everything will click and that will be that. But it doesn't feel that simple right now. And, as always, I feel compelled to mention that sanctions resulting in a secondary transfer window ban will keep the Galaxy from doing the surgery on their roster they appear to already need.
It's rough. And they're in danger of finding themselves at the bottom of the conference soon.
3. How much do we take from two outstanding performances from the Crew?
Maybe I'm projecting Lucas Zelarayan's penchant for being the streakiest player in the league, but it feels like the Crew have been as hot and cold as teams come over the last few years. So how much stock should we put in back-to-back blowout wins? Especially against an Atlanta United team missing its best players and against an RSL team that at least feels like its missing its best players.
With Wilfried Nancy in charge, it's hard not to default towards this being somewhat sustainable. I doubt they'll beat every team by four or five goals each week, but this is nearly immediate proof of concept for Nancy's game model and process in Columbus. Progress isn't linear, but there's no reason to believe the Crew will suddenly stop getting results…other than their recent history and continued concerns about their roster.
Ok, yeah, I'm still not quite convinced. But the last two weeks are a sign that Nancy, unsurprisingly, has things heading in the right direction. You can expect a few more big wins along the way this year.
4. How long will Seattle ride the hot hand?
If you missed it, Jordan Morris and Leo Chu ran the show for Seattle for the second straight week. Morris started at striker with Chu on the wing as Brian Schmetzer left his attack untouched from a 4-1 beatdown in Kansas City last week. He had Raul Ruidiaz and Heber available but instead opted for continuity.
It paid off quickly. Chu found Morris for the fifth-consecutive Seattle goal scored by Morris and assisted by Chu, and then Chu scored a goal of his own. Seattle were far from perfect the rest of the way, but they didn't have to be with an early 2-0 lead established. So, with Morris on the heater of all heaters and Chu rapidly becoming one of the most effective U22s in the league, do you keep things unchanged?
This is such a Seattle question because it involves all of their players being a little too good at soccer. "Should they move the best goal scorer in the league back to wing because they have two excellent strikers chilling on the bench right now???" That's the problem they're facing. I think either way they're going to win a ton of games, but I'm at least intrigued to see if Morris and Chu can break the scoring and assist record solely via each other. If you're going to win anyway, you might as well make it interesting, right?
5. Did Atlanta really beat New York?
They did. I saw it. I was there. And my biggest takeaway wasn't that they suddenly played their way through Red Bulls' press or anything. (They were successful every now and then but still nearly gifted a couple of huge chances that could have changed the game.) My biggest takeaway was that they handled a game with 30 fouls and ten yellow cards and a ton of physical contact like a team that was up for a street fight. I'm relatively sure prior Atlanta teams wilt in that scenario. Instead, they powered their way to a professional 1-0 win. They picked up their first ever regular-season win over New York and, at full strength, look like one of the best teams in the league.
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