MLS The Daily Kickooff

By Anonymous (not verified), July 12, 2023
MLS Soccer
MLS Soccer
Good morning, y'all. Your pal Sam here. Let's soccer.

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Seriously, I just want to iterate here, an amazing night of soccer is in store. The Universe graciously chose quality and quantity without spreading the night too thin. After saying all that, it likely won't live up to expectations, but the odds of seeing a handful of well-played games between the league's best teams are very high. It's like a mini-playoff night. Our chances of seeing something special are higher than normal. And if that doesn't actually work out, you can just check in on the Gold Cup and pretend that I never called this one of the nights of the year in MLS.Here's what to keep an eye on in particular.Four games that might shape the Shield race for the rest of the yearWe've said this before, but the Supporters' Shield might be wrapped up by the end of the night. The last time we mentioned it, the gap between Cincy and the field actually closed. Even still, they're tremendous favorites and that gap remains pretty big all considered. No matter what happens tonight, it will take a bit of a nosedive from Cincinnati and a heckuva performance the rest of the way from one of the few teams that can actually catch them.That list is essentially down to four teams at this point. St. Louis is seven points behind, New England is eight points behind, Nashville is seven points behind with a game out of hand and Philadelphia is 11 points behind but are also liable to go supernova hot at any moment. But I'm being generous to those three teams if I'm being honest and kind of harsh on teams like Columbus, LAFC and Seattle. All are very good, but I'm just not sure they have the juice this year to close the gaps we're talking about.Just to put it in perspective again, Cincy could get one point per game from here on out and finish with 57 points. If we're realistic about it, a "nosedive" in this case probably looks more like Cincy being a totally decent 1.5ish points per game the rest of the way. That would put them at about 65 points. St. Louis, the closest team, would need to match Cincy's current 2.14 points per game pace the rest of the way just to tie.It's MLS though! Nothing is out of the realm of possibility. And Cincy have a tough test tonight against the Red Bulls at Red Bull Arena. The Garys have actually looked mortal on the road this year, and, as we've mentioned over and over here, New York's underlying numbers are among the best in the league.Fortunately, Cincy's style matches up well with New York's and the Red Bulls have struggled to put together consistent performances this year, especially in attack. A loss could mean some pressure is coming their way though. If a few teams start to get closer and closer, it's fair to wonder how they'll handle a situation totally foreign to the club.Three games that might shape the race for home playoff spots in the Eastern Conference for the rest of the yearWhile we may understand the Shield race a little more after tonight, we'll probably get a little more confused about the East. I know that's not helpful, but I don't see any clarity coming our way here. I do think, however, tonight might be one of those that we look back down the road and see where it made a difference.We're probably at the point of the year where we can go ahead and call the New England-Atlanta and Nashville-Philadelphia matchups "six-pointers."Third-place New England and fifth-place Atlanta are separated by two points. Atlanta outplayed the Revs in Atlanta earlier this year but literally gave away goals in a 3-3 draw. That said, the Five Stripes have shifted their setup and philosophy a bit since then. The Revs will have to become the first team to break down Atlanta's back five. They've given up just two shots on goal in the games since the shift. New England has Carles Gil though, so…I'd expect that number to change.Second-place Nashille and sixth-place Philadelphia are separated by four points and even smaller margins than New England and Atlanta on points per game. The Union have had a bit of a tough time figuring out life without Kai Wagner and Andre Blake as of late and have dropped their last two games. A third-straight road game couldn't have come at a worse time. But they're still the Union and can roll over an opposing side up at any point. That definitely includes a Nashville team that inexplicably laid an egg on the road against Chicago last week.Three games that might shape the race for the top of the Western Conference for the rest of the yearOut West every game feels important right now. There's probably only one team you can comfortably count out of the playoff race. There's incredibly little separation in the middle of the pack. So, yes, Houston-Minnesota and Vancouver-Austin also carry importance.That said, there really only seem to be four teams that have the quality to win the conference right now. A higher-seed and home playoff games could be a massive difference by the time those teams meet up in the postseason.RSL takes on Sporting KC on the road tonight and will look to continue their league-best road form. They're just five points behind first place St. Louis. Then there's Seattle and San Jose. It kind of feels like Seattle are finding their groove lately and like the Quakes need a shot in the arm. Another road win for Seattle could potentially put them even on points with St. Louis at the end of the night.In fact, we could have four teams within two points of the top spot in the West after tonight because St. Louis has the unenviable task of facing LAFC in LA. RSL, Seattle and LAFC wins would bring us to that scenario. Fortunately for CITY, they're catching LAFC at the best possible time. The Black & Gold couldn't be more exhausted than they are at this exact moment. They're reaching the very end of a grueling stretch where they've played a game about every 3.5 days for the last few weeks, and their results have suffered as a consequence.That makes tonight huge for St. Louis' hopes of topping the conference. LAFC are about to get a long break and a chance to add talent in the summer transfer window. They have a ton of points in them down the stretch. St. Louis needs as much distance as possible. A six-point swing tonight could be critical.

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